Climate Change
For the southeast of the UK the trend in climate is towards hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter, winters, with increased storminess. Combined with sea level rise the likelihood of flooding and greater coastal erosion is a real threat to both people and the existing habitats and species around the Solent. There may also be a significant effect on the coast due to storminess and associated wave and surge actions, with rivers also seeking to discharge higher flows into the sea. This may in turn, affect flooding on the low coast and in river estuaries, as well as erosion of coastal and intertidal features such as shingle banks and mudflats.
Such physical changes to the coast will also significantly impact on human activity. Where we live, take part in recreation and work will all be influenced by changes in our natural environment. There are many difficult choices to be made in the future as we learn to live with different weather patterns and more severe weather events.
In June 2009, the new UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) were launched by Hilary Benn. UKCP09 provides the latest information on how continued emissions of greenhouse gases may change the UK’s climate over the 21st century. UKCP09 comprises a package of information, primarily available online, which includes publications, key findings, user support and customisable output visit the climate change projection pages on the Defra website for more information.
European Policy
The European Commission has prepared a White Paper outlining actions needed to strengthen the Union's resilience in coping with a changing climate. Recent findings indicate that the impacts of climate change will be swifter and more severe than indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their 2007 report. The framework presented by the Commission sets out a two-phase strategic approach to adapting to the impacts of climate change in the EU which complements actions taken by Member States through an integrated and coordinated approach.
National Policy and Research
The Climate Change Act, 2008 makes the UK the first country in the world to have a legally binding long-term framework to cut carbon emissions. It also creates a framework for building the UK's ability to adapt to climate change. The UK government has developed an 'Adapting to Coastal Change Programme' which is a cross-government programme co-ordinated by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). The programme brings together the work already being led by government and the wider public sector on adapting to climate change. It will co-ordinate and drive forward the development of the government's work on adaptation in the future. The Government is also developing an adaptation toolkit to assist communities in adapting to change where constructing defences is not the most appropriate means of managing flood and coastal erosion risk.
In its Annual State of the Environment Report for the Southeast, the Environment Agency's climate change scenarios show an increase in seasonality – hotter, drier summers and wetter winters. Sea levels will rise by one metre in the next 100 years. In Hampshire there are currently 28,154 properties that would be at risk of flooding, should defences fail. To combat this, where appropriate, the Agency will invest in new methods of protection. Across the southeast it has defended an additional 14,100 properties in the last three years. It encourages people to be aware of the risks by signing up to its Floodline warning service and by offering those at risk advice on how to prepare for flooding. Currently, just 63% of properties at risk in the South East are registered to receive a warning.
The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) provides a co-ordinating framework within the UK for the transfer of high-quality marine climate change impacts evidence and advice to policy advisors and decision-makers. The Partnership acts as the primary focus for the supply of evidence and advice to partners to enable them to individually and collectively plan for the challenges and opportunities presented by the impacts of climate change in the marine environment.
The MCCIP produces annual report cards that detail changes to the UK marine climate. Below are listed some of the key findings reported in the 2007–2008 card:
- 2006 was the second-warmest year in UK coastal waters since records began in 1870; seven of the 10 warmest years have occurred in the last decade.
- Models predict fewer storms but there will be a greater number of more severe storms.
- Coastal erosion is expected to increase. Currently, it affects 17% of the UK coastline.
- Warmer winters have been strongly linked to reduced breeding success and survival in some seabird populations.
Local Projects
The Solent Forum is currently scoping a project 'AdaptSolent' that will look at community engagement in adapting to coastal change. Please contact the Forum Office for details.
In 2007, Hampshire County Council set up a Climate Change Commission of Inquiry to look at how Hampshire can adapt to become more resilient to the social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change. This was done by considering evidence from a wide range of sources, learning from good practice around the world and focusing on what the County Council, and its partners, could do to help Hampshire address climate change. The Inquiry covers the Hampshire coast.
